* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL192012 10/25/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 44 43 41 37 30 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 45 44 43 41 37 30 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 44 42 40 38 32 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G09R 28 30 28 26 23 23 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 41 33 36 44 53 39 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 7 3 1 -3 0 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 24 34 38 47 65 81 90 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.3 24.0 23.9 24.0 23.9 23.1 22.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 102 100 99 99 98 94 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 92 90 90 89 88 84 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.2 -56.1 -56.5 -56.7 -56.7 -57.6 -58.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 8 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 30 31 32 33 33 34 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 12 11 10 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -75 -81 -82 -87 -84 -76 -67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 98 69 58 61 60 68 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2103 2163 2236 2138 2000 1783 1624 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.1 30.2 30.4 30.4 30.3 31.3 32.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 41.5 39.8 38.0 36.2 34.7 31.8 29.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 16 14 13 14 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G09R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 69/ 23 CX,CY: 21/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 672 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -8. -7. -7. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -12. -21. -28. -33. -37. -39. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 15. 19. 22. 25. 28. 29. 31. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -15. -24. -31. -37. -42. -46. -50.