* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN EP172012 10/28/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 38 47 51 51 50 46 43 41 40 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 38 47 51 51 50 46 43 41 40 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 34 38 41 42 42 42 42 44 V (KT) G09R 41 34 33 38 40 41 30 29 29 28 28 26 25 SHEAR (KT) 4 2 0 4 8 14 12 16 19 24 18 21 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 0 -1 3 1 6 4 3 -2 -5 -5 1 SHEAR DIR 349 3 117 124 111 98 96 110 108 121 95 85 80 SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.5 27.0 26.7 26.6 26.8 26.9 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 153 149 147 146 144 139 136 131 129 127 128 129 132 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.4 -53.3 -52.7 -53.3 -53.1 -53.6 -53.4 -54.1 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 12 12 12 12 11 12 10 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 50 51 55 56 61 67 65 62 57 56 51 52 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 20 19 19 19 19 19 16 15 13 13 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -3 -7 -13 -14 -23 -38 -25 -31 -28 -34 -33 -28 200 MB DIV 30 54 65 68 96 21 3 -2 21 21 46 5 14 LAND (KM) 928 964 985 978 972 939 916 913 968 1017 1067 1097 1166 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.9 13.2 13.6 14.3 14.9 15.3 15.7 15.9 16.1 16.2 16.1 15.9 LONG(DEG W) 109.8 111.0 111.6 111.9 112.4 112.9 113.4 114.2 115.5 116.5 117.3 117.6 118.3 STM SPEED (KT) 13 10 6 7 6 3 4 4 7 4 3 2 4 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G09R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):289/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 26. 28. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 5. 3. 2. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 22. 26. 26. 25. 21. 18. 16. 15.