* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN EP172012 10/28/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 30 32 36 39 39 39 40 40 41 41 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 30 32 36 39 39 39 40 40 41 41 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 32 34 36 37 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G10R 30 28 22 16 19 18 16 15 12 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 3 9 8 7 4 11 14 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 3 4 4 -1 3 7 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 54 92 107 156 162 116 121 109 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.4 26.4 26.4 26.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 148 146 144 138 126 125 127 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.8 -52.7 -52.4 -53.0 -53.1 -53.5 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 47 51 56 60 66 63 60 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 10 12 10 9 8 6 6 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -51 -51 -51 -57 -59 -51 -32 -28 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -20 -3 40 15 11 -42 -10 -16 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 920 810 877 926 956 915 908 975 1039 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.3 13.8 14.1 14.1 14.4 15.4 16.5 16.6 16.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.5 109.9 111.1 111.7 112.3 113.6 115.4 116.5 116.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 12 9 6 7 9 7 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):289/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 676 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 22. 25. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -10. -11. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 11. 14. 14. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16.