* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN EP172012 10/29/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 37 42 47 50 48 42 36 31 27 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 37 42 47 50 48 42 36 31 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 31 33 35 36 35 32 29 25 V (KT) G00R 19 19 19 19 21 21 21 21 19 18 18 17 17 SHEAR (KT) 4 9 17 21 22 17 13 22 27 31 35 40 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 0 -5 -5 -5 -3 0 0 0 8 2 1 -3 SHEAR DIR 68 67 91 104 107 111 113 95 96 92 78 76 81 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.9 27.9 27.2 26.5 26.1 26.0 26.3 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 143 141 140 138 137 144 143 136 128 121 119 124 126 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.9 -53.7 -54.4 -54.1 -54.6 -54.2 -54.6 -55.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 10 10 11 10 10 9 8 8 9 10 700-500 MB RH 62 64 68 69 68 68 62 58 54 50 49 49 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 8 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -6 -11 -14 -11 -6 -13 -32 -43 -41 -43 -34 -28 200 MB DIV 59 43 14 -2 4 34 67 52 30 31 42 -6 -20 LAND (KM) 1115 1077 1076 1098 1132 1416 1412 1333 1375 1407 1424 1480 1565 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.9 14.2 14.5 14.7 13.7 14.3 16.0 16.9 17.5 17.5 16.8 16.3 LONG(DEG W) 113.4 113.8 114.5 115.5 116.4 119.3 119.9 121.0 122.5 123.4 123.6 123.7 124.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 9 10 9 13 8 9 8 3 2 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 19. 23. 25. 26. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -0. -4. -7. -11. -14. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 17. 22. 25. 23. 17. 11. 6. 2.