* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL182012 10/29/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 65 65 65 63 54 43 32 26 21 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 65 65 65 55 33 30 30 30 30 30 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 65 66 64 57 32 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 V (KT) G00R 55 58 63 67 55 46 21 21 11 15 13 11 12 SHEAR (KT) 22 25 15 26 38 19 6 10 12 12 5 10 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 7 10 9 0 6 5 3 -1 -3 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 17 39 20 336 316 252 157 71 5 310 240 112 55 SST (C) 25.7 26.0 25.9 21.0 5.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 112 115 116 86 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 98 100 102 79 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.2 -50.0 -49.4 -48.2 -47.3 -48.1 -49.8 -50.4 -51.0 -51.3 -51.5 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 48 46 44 46 58 64 74 75 77 77 75 71 67 GFS VTEX (KT) 50 49 52 57 61 48 33 22 18 16 14 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR 244 259 290 346 404 438 383 344 309 263 209 202 190 200 MB DIV 103 76 51 68 51 80 23 31 33 32 15 9 -8 LAND (KM) 483 501 441 228 -18 -178 -364 -213 -309 -538 -556 -437 -244 LAT (DEG N) 33.9 35.1 36.6 38.3 39.4 39.7 40.2 40.3 43.0 45.1 46.0 45.9 44.5 LONG(DEG W) 71.0 70.3 70.6 72.2 74.7 77.2 79.2 77.1 75.8 76.7 76.3 74.7 73.0 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 18 21 18 9 2 12 13 10 5 7 12 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 44/ 13 CX,CY: 9/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 477 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -8. -13. -16. -20. -22. -24. -25. -25. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. -0. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -15. -20. -24. -28. -32. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 0. 2. 5. -2. -12. -20. -23. -26. -28. -30. -31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 2. 3. 5. 7. 12. 17. 22. 26. 28. 30. 31. 30. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. -0. -2. -11. -22. -33. -39. -44. -48. -54. -64.