* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL182012 10/29/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 65 65 65 61 50 41 31 24 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 65 65 65 47 32 30 30 30 30 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 66 66 62 46 31 30 30 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G01R 56 59 60 65 53 37 18 11 10 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 21 26 16 35 42 15 7 11 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -7 9 12 7 0 1 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 15 42 14 328 307 239 140 59 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.7 26.1 24.6 17.6 6.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 113 117 106 77 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 99 102 95 72 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.0 -50.1 -49.9 -48.9 -47.6 -46.6 -47.6 -49.3 -50.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 46 45 50 63 67 75 76 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 50 50 53 59 60 43 31 21 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 261 275 317 370 414 441 389 341 266 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 99 83 70 73 61 70 19 37 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 479 479 347 88 -82 -224 -408 -333 -416 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.0 35.5 37.2 38.8 39.3 39.7 40.5 41.0 43.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 71.0 70.6 71.3 73.7 76.2 77.7 79.7 78.2 77.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 21 22 14 10 2 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 44/ 13 CX,CY: 9/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 447 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -5. -9. -14. -18. -21. -23. -25. -26. -26. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. 0. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -13. -14. -16. -18. -21. -24. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -20. -24. -28. -32. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 1. 3. 4. -5. -14. -21. -24. -26. -27. -27. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 2. 4. 5. 8. 13. 18. 23. 26. 29. 32. 34. 35. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -0. -4. -15. -24. -34. -41. -47. -54. -60. -68.