* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL182012 10/29/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 65 65 65 62 53 43 32 25 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 65 65 65 52 32 30 30 30 30 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 65 66 64 50 32 30 30 30 30 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G02R 55 59 62 66 54 39 24 13 11 19 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 23 24 15 28 41 18 7 10 16 19 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -5 6 10 8 -1 2 5 2 2 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 20 40 25 337 312 261 166 94 40 1 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.7 26.0 25.7 20.0 5.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 112 115 114 83 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 98 100 101 77 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.3 -49.8 -49.3 -48.1 -47.0 -47.9 -49.6 -50.4 -51.5 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 46 44 49 62 64 75 75 76 73 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 50 50 52 58 61 47 34 22 17 16 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 232 257 289 353 407 434 371 336 293 223 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 98 91 56 70 55 73 36 31 35 23 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 474 492 428 185 -43 -219 -448 -387 -401 -589 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.9 35.1 36.7 38.4 39.4 39.9 41.0 41.3 43.5 45.2 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 71.1 70.5 70.7 72.7 75.2 77.6 79.8 78.7 76.8 77.6 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 19 22 16 12 2 10 11 3 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G02R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 44/ 13 CX,CY: 9/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 469 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -9. -13. -17. -20. -22. -24. -25. -25. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -13. -15. -17. -20. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -15. -20. -24. -28. -32. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 0. 3. 5. -3. -12. -20. -24. -26. -29. -29. -29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 2. 3. 5. 7. 12. 17. 22. 25. 28. 30. 32. 32. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. -0. -3. -12. -22. -33. -40. -46. -55. -60. -68.