* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN EP172012 10/29/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 43 50 54 54 53 48 42 38 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 43 50 54 54 53 48 42 38 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 27 29 31 33 34 35 33 30 28 V (KT) G03R 32 25 28 27 27 25 28 30 30 30 29 31 26 SHEAR (KT) 11 16 15 15 14 18 10 12 13 23 27 34 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 1 0 -1 0 -6 0 2 9 11 7 0 -5 SHEAR DIR 87 81 103 117 109 121 103 128 106 113 91 100 96 SST (C) 27.9 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.6 27.3 26.9 26.6 26.3 26.5 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 145 141 139 138 140 141 139 135 130 126 122 124 126 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.1 -53.5 -53.2 -53.6 -53.1 -53.8 -53.7 -54.3 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 10 9 8 9 10 700-500 MB RH 62 63 67 69 69 66 62 60 59 60 60 52 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 10 12 12 13 14 15 16 16 17 16 15 14 850 MB ENV VOR 28 21 6 0 -7 -25 -28 -25 -25 -30 -22 -22 -13 200 MB DIV 91 56 -4 -11 -5 17 18 37 73 46 58 4 35 LAND (KM) 1104 1165 1223 1283 1295 1298 1383 1409 1428 1405 1346 1352 1390 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.2 13.6 14.8 15.1 15.6 16.1 16.6 17.3 17.0 16.6 LONG(DEG W) 113.7 115.1 116.2 116.6 117.4 118.9 120.6 121.6 122.4 122.6 122.5 122.3 122.4 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 8 6 9 9 6 5 4 3 1 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G03R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 687 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 19. 23. 25. 27. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -6. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 7. 8. 7. 5. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 18. 25. 29. 29. 28. 23. 17. 13.