* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL182012 10/29/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 65 65 64 62 53 44 33 26 24 19 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 65 65 64 54 33 30 30 30 30 30 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 65 65 64 57 32 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 V (KT) G03R 56 58 63 66 57 45 27 14 10 27 16 15 12 SHEAR (KT) 23 25 17 27 40 19 2 9 13 13 10 10 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 6 10 9 -1 5 3 6 0 -2 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 22 37 19 338 317 252 177 69 11 309 213 111 34 SST (C) 25.7 26.0 25.9 21.2 5.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 112 115 116 87 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 97 99 102 80 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.5 -50.1 -49.4 -48.3 -47.3 -48.1 -49.7 -50.3 -50.6 -50.3 -50.9 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 49 46 44 47 59 63 75 75 79 77 74 69 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 50 48 51 56 61 47 34 22 17 20 17 13 6 850 MB ENV VOR 242 249 281 339 399 440 370 337 305 262 224 205 160 200 MB DIV 94 78 52 67 52 73 38 31 24 20 14 -3 -8 LAND (KM) 483 503 447 233 -18 -190 -415 -355 -506 -653 -577 -456 -409 LAT (DEG N) 33.9 35.0 36.5 38.2 39.4 40.0 40.8 41.4 44.3 45.2 45.2 45.0 44.9 LONG(DEG W) 71.0 70.3 70.6 72.2 74.7 77.1 79.6 78.1 77.6 79.0 77.2 75.7 75.1 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 18 22 18 12 0 12 14 3 5 6 0 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM G03R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 44/ 13 CX,CY: 9/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 478 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -8. -13. -17. -20. -22. -24. -25. -25. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. -1. -2. -2. -0. -0. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -10. -12. -13. -13. -15. -16. -16. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -15. -20. -24. -28. -32. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 0. 2. 5. -3. -12. -20. -24. -23. -25. -29. -33. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 2. 3. 5. 7. 12. 17. 22. 25. 28. 29. 30. 29. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -1. -3. -12. -21. -32. -39. -41. -46. -55. -68.