* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL182012 10/29/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 65 65 65 64 55 43 32 26 24 20 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 65 65 65 50 32 30 30 30 30 30 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 66 66 63 49 31 30 30 30 30 30 30 DIS V (KT) G04R 58 60 62 67 56 38 17 27 10 15 15 13 0 SHEAR (KT) 21 24 15 30 44 19 8 14 14 16 6 13 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 9 11 10 1 5 5 6 4 -2 -2 N/A SHEAR DIR 17 44 18 335 309 246 133 50 356 294 207 58 N/A SST (C) 25.7 26.1 25.4 19.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 113 117 112 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 99 101 99 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.3 -50.1 -49.3 -47.9 -46.9 -48.0 -49.7 -50.1 -50.4 -50.7 -50.9 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 47 46 49 61 65 74 72 74 72 70 63 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 50 49 52 58 61 47 31 21 17 19 19 14 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 250 257 295 353 408 423 376 326 272 251 206 201 N/A 200 MB DIV 108 84 57 64 45 78 27 49 38 27 -3 5 N/A LAND (KM) 479 498 404 161 -76 -232 -333 -187 -371 -565 -469 -325 N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.0 35.4 37.0 38.7 39.6 39.7 39.8 40.4 43.8 45.5 45.5 45.6 N/A LONG(DEG W) 71.0 70.3 70.7 72.7 75.6 77.8 79.1 76.3 75.2 76.8 75.5 73.2 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 19 23 17 8 6 15 17 2 7 15 N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G04R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 44/ 13 CX,CY: 9/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 407 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -13. -16. -18. -20. -21. -22. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -0. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. -16. -17. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -20. -24. -28. -32. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 0. 3. 4. -3. -14. -21. -24. -24. -25. -28. -30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 2. 3. 5. 7. 12. 17. 22. 25. 28. 29. 30. 30. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -0. -1. -10. -22. -33. -39. -41. -45. -54. -64.