* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN EP172012 10/29/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 33 38 44 50 52 49 46 41 39 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 33 38 44 50 52 49 46 41 39 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 29 29 29 30 30 30 29 28 V (KT) G05R 37 27 27 23 26 27 28 31 32 32 32 30 36 SHEAR (KT) 1 4 6 7 9 15 13 15 16 25 30 33 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 5 5 3 0 0 2 3 0 1 0 5 SHEAR DIR 183 73 117 151 182 174 120 132 88 106 92 93 89 SST (C) 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.0 28.0 27.6 27.2 27.1 26.8 26.6 26.5 26.6 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 146 142 141 139 135 132 128 126 122 125 129 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.8 -53.1 -52.8 -52.5 -53.3 -52.9 -53.7 -53.4 -54.1 -53.8 -54.6 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 10 10 11 10 10 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 67 67 70 70 72 72 71 69 66 64 64 60 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 12 13 14 13 14 16 17 18 17 17 17 18 850 MB ENV VOR 16 -3 -6 -6 -20 -19 -25 -30 -35 -47 -36 -26 9 200 MB DIV 71 60 30 -4 9 41 43 77 55 58 49 23 44 LAND (KM) 1049 1109 1196 1230 1231 1145 1093 1105 1044 1020 997 1012 1037 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.2 12.3 12.5 12.6 13.7 14.8 15.3 16.2 16.6 16.9 16.7 16.2 LONG(DEG W) 111.0 112.2 113.4 114.0 114.3 114.9 115.9 116.8 117.0 117.1 117.1 117.1 116.9 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 9 5 3 7 7 4 3 2 0 1 4 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 27. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. -1. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 6. 6. 5. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 8. 13. 19. 25. 27. 24. 21. 16. 14.