* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL182012 10/29/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 64 64 63 55 45 33 25 20 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 64 64 64 63 35 30 30 30 30 30 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 65 65 64 59 34 30 30 30 30 30 30 DIS V (KT) G05R 52 60 61 65 62 51 20 28 24 9 13 13 0 SHEAR (KT) 24 26 13 21 33 21 7 11 15 16 14 3 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 7 10 7 1 8 7 4 1 0 1 N/A SHEAR DIR 19 33 25 347 327 269 190 75 4 304 298 250 N/A SST (C) 25.7 25.9 26.2 23.5 14.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 111 114 118 98 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 95 98 103 89 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.2 -50.0 -49.5 -48.8 -47.8 -48.4 -50.2 -51.2 -51.5 -51.9 -51.6 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 45 42 44 54 63 75 74 75 75 71 66 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 50 50 52 56 62 50 36 24 18 14 15 14 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 236 257 280 318 385 433 387 342 288 252 201 166 N/A 200 MB DIV 108 69 36 71 54 55 29 21 37 45 24 14 N/A LAND (KM) 487 500 502 326 70 -156 -315 -191 -213 -359 -451 -337 N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.8 34.7 36.2 37.9 39.3 39.7 40.3 40.3 42.6 45.9 48.3 47.7 N/A LONG(DEG W) 71.0 70.5 70.1 71.2 73.6 76.8 78.6 76.7 73.8 73.3 74.1 72.2 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 13 16 21 20 9 1 13 17 18 6 10 N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 44/ 13 CX,CY: 9/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -8. -12. -15. -19. -21. -22. -23. -24. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. -0. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. -15. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -15. -19. -24. -28. -32. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 0. 2. 5. -1. -10. -19. -23. -27. -27. -28. -28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 2. 3. 5. 7. 12. 17. 22. 25. 28. 29. 30. 30. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -2. -10. -20. -32. -40. -45. -49. -52. -58.