* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN EP172012 10/29/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 34 35 36 33 26 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 34 35 36 33 26 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 27 27 26 25 23 21 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G06R 25 15 19 19 16 14 18 13 16 12 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 6 10 21 28 27 17 22 30 36 46 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 -1 0 -2 -1 -4 -6 -1 -3 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 114 85 102 113 118 134 107 104 95 82 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.0 27.7 27.1 26.6 26.2 26.2 26.2 25.9 25.5 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 141 135 129 122 124 123 120 116 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -52.9 -53.7 -53.8 -54.2 -54.2 -54.6 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 61 63 64 68 68 61 57 56 59 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 5 6 7 6 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -29 -42 -27 -9 -1 -19 -12 -40 -56 -61 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 48 49 38 38 16 -11 11 23 20 -1 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1035 949 936 913 894 880 943 961 928 906 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.6 15.0 15.7 16.3 16.9 17.1 17.9 18.5 19.2 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.9 112.4 113.1 114.2 114.9 115.5 116.6 117.9 118.2 118.7 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 5 10 11 8 2 7 5 4 5 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 19. 21. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -4. -9. -15. -19. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 8. 1. -7. -13. -14. -15.