* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL182012 10/29/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 65 65 65 64 56 45 34 28 24 21 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 65 65 65 53 32 30 30 30 30 30 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 65 66 63 50 32 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 V (KT) G07R 57 59 63 64 58 43 19 24 9 15 16 8 12 SHEAR (KT) 22 24 15 29 41 17 9 14 17 15 3 5 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 8 9 7 3 4 2 3 3 -4 -4 4 SHEAR DIR 20 42 15 337 314 236 121 35 330 297 272 40 26 SST (C) 25.7 26.1 25.4 19.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 113 116 111 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 99 101 98 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.1 -49.8 -49.1 -48.0 -47.3 -48.3 -49.8 -50.3 -50.9 -50.9 -51.3 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 49 47 46 48 61 64 74 74 77 73 71 71 68 GFS VTEX (KT) 50 49 52 57 60 47 32 22 17 16 17 14 15 850 MB ENV VOR 259 263 305 358 414 426 385 341 284 254 238 227 207 200 MB DIV 106 85 60 67 48 67 19 42 27 16 -10 9 3 LAND (KM) 479 489 401 173 -57 -198 -300 -214 -341 -577 -450 -290 -357 LAT (DEG N) 34.0 35.4 36.9 38.6 39.5 39.8 40.0 40.6 43.1 45.2 44.4 44.6 45.8 LONG(DEG W) 71.0 70.5 70.8 72.7 75.3 77.3 78.6 76.6 76.3 77.2 76.0 73.6 73.5 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 18 22 16 8 4 11 12 5 10 7 11 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 44/ 13 CX,CY: 9/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 459 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -5. -6. -10. -14. -17. -18. -20. -21. -22. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. -16. -16. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -20. -24. -28. -32. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 0. 3. 4. -3. -13. -20. -24. -26. -26. -28. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 2. 3. 5. 8. 13. 17. 22. 26. 28. 30. 31. 30. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. -0. -1. -9. -20. -31. -37. -41. -44. -51. -57.