* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL182012 10/29/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 65 65 65 63 54 43 32 25 22 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 65 65 65 55 33 30 29 30 30 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 65 66 64 57 32 30 29 30 30 30 30 30 V (KT) G08R 57 58 61 67 57 44 20 25 11 16 9 15 24 SHEAR (KT) 22 23 14 27 40 22 6 10 11 10 7 12 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 8 10 11 0 6 5 4 1 -3 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 22 45 22 337 316 257 182 95 45 358 35 30 9 SST (C) 25.7 26.0 26.0 21.2 5.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 112 115 117 87 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 97 99 102 80 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.5 -50.4 -49.6 -48.3 -47.1 -47.8 -49.5 -50.4 -51.1 -51.4 -51.8 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 48 45 42 45 57 63 73 75 76 76 71 67 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 50 48 52 57 62 48 34 22 18 19 15 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 240 253 283 332 388 437 380 339 309 250 219 207 197 200 MB DIV 104 73 55 70 54 84 28 38 32 25 4 -2 10 LAND (KM) 483 512 454 233 -18 -193 -372 -176 -286 -478 -461 -382 -48 LAT (DEG N) 33.9 35.0 36.5 38.2 39.4 39.7 40.0 39.9 42.7 44.2 44.5 43.8 41.2 LONG(DEG W) 71.0 70.2 70.5 72.2 74.7 77.3 79.5 77.0 76.0 77.2 76.1 75.7 72.8 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 18 22 18 10 4 11 14 3 3 8 23 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 44/ 13 CX,CY: 9/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 458 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -8. -12. -16. -20. -22. -24. -24. -25. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 0. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -12. -13. -13. -14. -15. -15. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -15. -19. -24. -28. -32. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 0. 3. 5. -1. -12. -20. -23. -24. -27. -29. -30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 2. 3. 5. 7. 12. 17. 22. 25. 28. 29. 30. 30. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 0. -2. -11. -22. -33. -40. -43. -51. -59. -67.