* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN EP172012 10/29/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 30 31 34 35 31 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 30 31 34 35 31 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 27 28 28 27 25 22 20 17 DIS V (KT) G10R 43 29 29 28 26 25 33 27 21 17 18 17 0 SHEAR (KT) 2 11 19 22 22 26 29 28 34 41 48 55 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 1 0 1 -2 -6 0 5 5 -1 -1 -1 N/A SHEAR DIR 111 70 103 118 109 108 96 92 85 105 92 69 N/A SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.2 27.0 26.6 26.7 26.4 26.0 25.9 25.5 25.6 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 141 140 135 132 128 130 127 119 119 114 117 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 -52.6 -53.3 -53.1 -53.5 -53.0 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 8 7 7 7 8 N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 62 66 68 68 66 59 55 56 55 52 46 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 15 14 13 11 11 10 11 10 9 6 6 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -4 -2 -7 -13 -2 -9 -30 -29 -26 -5 -5 N/A 200 MB DIV 85 80 37 8 23 24 34 48 33 26 60 38 N/A LAND (KM) 1048 1048 1052 1034 1023 993 1049 1061 1138 1076 1009 1072 N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.1 14.4 15.0 15.5 16.3 17.0 18.0 18.4 18.7 19.3 19.1 N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.9 113.6 114.4 115.2 115.8 116.4 118.0 119.5 120.9 120.4 120.1 120.7 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 9 6 7 9 8 1 3 2 4 N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 19. 21. 22. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -1. -4. -9. -15. -20. -25. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -5. -7. -9. -12. -12. -15. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 9. 10. 6. -1. -10. -18. -28. -29.