* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL182012 10/29/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 65 65 64 62 52 42 32 25 21 15 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 65 65 64 54 33 30 30 30 30 30 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 65 65 63 57 32 30 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G10R 55 59 65 67 58 42 17 12 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 21 27 15 27 35 16 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 9 10 6 2 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 13 31 11 330 315 245 144 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.7 26.0 25.7 20.8 11.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 111 115 113 85 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 96 99 99 78 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.2 -49.8 -49.3 -48.6 -48.0 -48.7 -50.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 46 45 48 60 65 76 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 51 50 53 57 60 47 32 22 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 249 260 297 353 412 435 397 337 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 110 87 53 71 54 45 28 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 474 458 409 208 -6 -214 -336 -311 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.9 35.0 36.5 38.0 39.1 39.4 39.9 40.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 71.1 70.8 71.1 72.7 75.1 77.7 79.1 78.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 17 20 17 8 2 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 44/ 13 CX,CY: 9/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 471 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -5. -9. -13. -17. -20. -22. -24. -25. -26. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -14. -16. -18. -21. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -15. -19. -23. -27. -31. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 0. 2. 4. -3. -14. -21. -24. -25. -26. -26. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 2. 3. 5. 7. 12. 17. 22. 26. 30. 33. 36. 36. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -1. -3. -13. -23. -33. -40. -44. -50. -55. -62.