* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN EP172012 10/31/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 45 48 51 55 58 55 54 54 53 50 48 V (KT) LAND 40 42 45 48 51 55 58 55 54 54 53 50 48 V (KT) LGE mod 40 42 44 45 47 49 50 49 48 49 51 53 55 V (KT) G01R 31 29 29 29 29 36 34 30 30 31 31 29 31 SHEAR (KT) 15 15 12 10 12 29 18 15 17 22 23 25 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 2 5 7 -6 6 9 9 0 0 1 2 SHEAR DIR 82 96 103 91 67 112 104 99 78 85 82 83 71 SST (C) 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 141 141 140 141 142 143 144 142 144 144 144 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -54.0 -53.7 -53.2 -54.0 -53.5 -54.2 -53.9 -54.4 -54.2 -54.7 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 7 8 700-500 MB RH 67 63 59 59 62 58 56 52 49 46 42 40 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 15 15 15 15 17 18 16 15 15 15 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -5 -24 -30 -29 -31 -43 -57 -47 -9 15 20 35 200 MB DIV 13 51 60 58 55 41 81 47 52 23 17 -4 21 LAND (KM) 1200 1268 1310 1323 1330 1336 1399 1460 1523 1555 1555 1530 1436 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.2 14.2 14.3 14.4 14.7 14.5 13.9 13.3 12.9 13.0 13.4 14.3 LONG(DEG W) 116.9 117.8 118.4 118.7 118.9 119.3 120.0 120.1 120.3 120.3 120.4 120.5 120.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 4 3 2 3 3 3 3 1 1 4 6 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):256/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 14. 17. 19. 20. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 2. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 11. 15. 18. 15. 14. 14. 13. 10. 8.