* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN EP172012 10/31/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 45 46 49 54 57 57 58 55 53 47 40 V (KT) LAND 40 42 45 46 49 54 57 57 58 55 53 47 40 V (KT) LGE mod 40 42 44 46 47 49 51 52 52 51 49 46 43 V (KT) G02R 29 27 29 30 32 29 31 31 40 31 28 29 33 SHEAR (KT) 1 4 8 7 2 16 15 13 20 28 34 37 50 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 0 2 5 0 3 9 10 4 0 3 -1 SHEAR DIR 202 154 177 171 89 113 111 89 70 73 57 45 48 SST (C) 27.6 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.5 27.5 27.8 28.1 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 135 137 137 136 135 132 132 134 137 137 141 146 158 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.8 -53.2 -53.8 -53.8 -54.3 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 64 57 52 53 54 52 51 51 53 51 52 52 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 17 17 16 17 18 18 19 19 19 19 17 15 850 MB ENV VOR 87 65 27 13 18 17 33 39 50 52 55 60 51 200 MB DIV 24 28 49 39 34 53 77 78 93 67 60 61 93 LAND (KM) 1191 1200 1172 1132 1096 1004 968 873 792 733 589 446 186 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.3 14.4 14.7 14.9 15.5 15.7 16.0 16.2 16.6 17.7 18.9 21.5 LONG(DEG W) 116.9 116.9 116.6 116.4 116.1 115.5 115.2 114.0 112.6 112.1 111.1 110.4 109.0 STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 3 3 3 3 4 7 5 5 7 11 15 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G02R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):256/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 14. 16. 17. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 1. -3. -6. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -0. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 6. 9. 14. 17. 17. 18. 15. 13. 7. -0.