* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN EP172012 10/31/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 45 47 47 44 40 37 33 30 28 25 22 V (KT) LAND 40 43 45 47 47 44 40 37 33 30 28 25 22 V (KT) LGE mod 40 42 43 44 44 42 38 34 32 31 30 29 DIS V (KT) G08R 40 30 31 29 31 25 24 21 19 22 19 20 0 SHEAR (KT) 5 10 15 23 28 34 29 21 29 32 25 27 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 10 10 9 6 2 9 10 10 6 9 8 N/A SHEAR DIR 129 78 68 70 80 98 81 87 84 85 92 90 N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.2 26.8 26.7 27.2 27.4 27.8 28.1 27.9 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 138 137 136 135 131 130 133 135 144 145 145 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -54.0 -53.6 -53.2 -54.0 -53.6 -54.2 -54.1 -54.8 -54.5 -54.6 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 9 8 8 9 10 10 11 11 N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 64 62 62 62 57 57 56 52 50 51 48 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 15 14 13 13 13 12 11 11 10 8 8 6 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 25 8 0 -9 -23 -11 7 33 38 39 9 N/A 200 MB DIV 79 108 135 97 79 42 34 41 54 42 25 1 N/A LAND (KM) 1219 1163 1136 1134 1148 1236 1375 1536 1583 1776 2034 2283 N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.3 15.2 15.8 16.4 16.8 17.2 16.8 15.4 15.1 14.1 12.9 12.3 N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.2 117.5 117.8 118.5 119.3 121.0 122.4 123.1 123.4 124.9 127.0 129.5 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 9 8 8 9 4 4 14 9 15 N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):256/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 15. 16. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. -16. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 7. 4. 0. -3. -7. -10. -12. -15. -18.