* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN EP172012 11/02/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 42 41 38 31 27 23 19 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 44 42 41 38 31 27 23 19 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 44 43 42 40 36 33 32 30 29 28 26 DIS V (KT) G03R 47 31 32 30 32 26 25 24 23 22 21 17 0 SHEAR (KT) 25 32 31 33 37 35 35 36 36 41 40 47 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 10 10 12 11 3 8 8 6 0 4 -1 N/A SHEAR DIR 117 102 93 88 87 84 85 96 88 86 71 85 N/A SST (C) 26.7 26.8 26.8 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.2 26.9 26.8 26.6 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 129 129 131 133 133 136 135 134 131 131 130 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.2 -54.2 -54.3 -54.1 -54.6 -54.7 -54.9 -54.5 -54.9 -54.9 -55.0 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 9 9 N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 53 49 47 46 43 44 46 46 46 44 43 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 19 16 15 16 15 13 12 11 9 8 7 5 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -32 -31 -31 -27 -20 -2 20 27 30 23 2 N/A 200 MB DIV 22 21 9 28 38 25 52 19 12 10 23 24 N/A LAND (KM) 1403 1430 1462 1500 1543 1602 1660 1733 1807 1903 2012 2154 N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.8 13.6 13.5 13.4 13.3 13.3 13.6 13.8 14.0 14.1 14.2 N/A LONG(DEG W) 119.0 119.6 119.8 120.2 120.7 121.5 122.4 123.8 125.0 126.4 127.8 129.8 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 3 4 5 3 7 6 6 7 8 10 N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G03R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):180/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 701 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -6. -12. -16. -21. -24. -27. -28. -31. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -2. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -16. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -7. -14. -18. -22. -26. -29. -32. -37. -41.