* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN EP172012 11/02/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 45 45 44 40 39 38 37 34 29 22 DIS V (KT) LAND 45 45 45 45 44 40 39 38 37 34 29 22 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 45 44 44 42 41 40 40 39 38 34 30 V (KT) G05R 40 32 34 38 34 29 29 28 29 27 22 22 20 SHEAR (KT) 20 22 25 23 23 23 24 21 18 21 28 39 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 -2 -3 2 7 6 9 8 11 9 13 5 4 SHEAR DIR 128 97 94 96 90 74 57 60 43 38 31 55 69 SST (C) 26.7 26.7 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 128 127 128 129 129 128 129 127 130 130 130 130 126 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.3 -53.8 -53.9 -54.4 -54.7 -54.4 -54.8 -54.7 -55.2 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 59 58 56 51 51 47 44 44 42 39 39 39 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 15 15 15 15 13 13 13 13 11 10 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR -34 -28 -20 -26 -33 -30 -14 -1 3 4 -7 -28 -37 200 MB DIV 23 -1 -11 1 27 1 17 12 20 21 19 12 38 LAND (KM) 1366 1363 1367 1400 1444 1519 1587 1623 1526 1414 1341 1308 1321 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 13.5 13.3 13.0 12.8 12.4 12.1 12.0 12.9 14.0 15.0 15.8 17.1 LONG(DEG W) 118.6 118.3 118.1 118.2 118.6 119.2 119.8 120.2 119.9 119.6 119.8 120.4 122.0 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 3 4 3 4 1 6 5 6 7 11 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):180/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -11. -13. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 13. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -4. -5. -5. -7. -9. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -0. -1. -5. -6. -7. -8. -11. -16. -23. -30.