* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN EP172012 11/02/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 44 41 37 31 25 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 45 44 41 37 31 25 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 44 42 41 37 34 31 28 25 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G06R 39 32 31 27 22 22 21 21 18 18 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 24 28 34 41 41 44 44 44 45 39 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 0 0 0 2 -3 2 7 6 5 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 129 103 101 97 95 81 67 62 52 49 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.7 26.8 26.8 26.7 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 130 127 125 127 125 125 128 129 128 127 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -54.3 -54.5 -54.3 -54.8 -54.9 -55.1 -54.9 -55.5 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 8 9 9 10 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 58 57 55 51 50 47 47 47 48 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 11 9 8 7 6 4 3 1 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -14 -8 -4 -9 -1 5 5 15 5 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 9 16 30 36 34 37 16 34 14 17 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1311 1227 1213 1224 1253 1246 1332 1424 1399 1383 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.6 14.6 14.8 14.8 14.8 14.2 13.7 14.1 14.2 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 118.3 117.7 117.5 117.9 118.3 118.2 118.7 119.4 119.5 119.4 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 5 1 4 1 1 5 3 2 2 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):180/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 655 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -7. -13. -20. -26. -32. -34. -35. -37. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -9. -13. -14. -16. -17. -16. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -4. -8. -14. -20. -29. -35. -40. -42. -44. -46.