* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN EP172012 11/02/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 45 46 48 49 47 46 39 25 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 45 45 46 48 49 47 46 39 25 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 44 44 44 45 45 45 42 37 30 22 15 V (KT) G07R 28 29 32 32 34 33 30 35 31 26 17 16 16 SHEAR (KT) 11 10 14 19 19 23 29 33 47 54 59 67 63 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 11 7 -1 -4 10 11 10 10 13 14 -7 -5 SHEAR DIR 176 158 132 117 103 69 44 52 49 49 59 65 60 SST (C) 26.8 26.8 26.9 27.1 27.3 27.6 27.7 28.0 27.9 27.3 25.9 23.9 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 130 131 132 135 137 138 141 144 142 136 122 102 90 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -53.7 -53.5 -54.0 -53.7 -54.4 -54.2 -54.8 -54.6 -55.4 -55.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 10 11 11 11 10 11 9 9 7 7 700-500 MB RH 46 44 46 48 47 44 42 48 49 48 44 34 30 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 16 17 18 18 18 16 16 15 10 8 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR 89 68 50 57 67 45 36 42 31 19 33 24 23 200 MB DIV -6 -10 -19 13 46 99 81 75 73 42 12 6 10 LAND (KM) 1376 1322 1255 1191 1086 916 793 583 406 274 267 285 323 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.3 13.5 13.7 14.3 15.3 16.1 17.7 19.3 20.7 21.9 23.0 24.4 LONG(DEG W) 118.1 117.4 116.6 115.8 114.9 113.4 112.3 110.8 110.7 111.2 112.4 114.3 115.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 9 11 6 9 9 8 7 10 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):180/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 700 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 10. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -4. -8. -14. -21. -28. -36. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 0. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. 0. -0. -2. -2. -5. -11. -14. -14. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 1. 3. 4. 2. 1. -6. -20. -33. -47. -62.