* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN EP172012 11/02/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 43 42 40 34 27 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 44 43 42 40 34 27 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 44 43 42 40 37 34 30 26 22 19 DIS DIS V (KT) G10R 41 35 36 38 31 26 27 23 19 16 15 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 22 28 34 35 37 40 44 48 52 55 58 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 18 7 -1 -2 -3 -5 3 2 4 2 6 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 140 102 93 93 93 80 69 75 72 75 64 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.2 26.1 26.1 26.2 26.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 130 129 127 123 125 125 122 121 120 123 123 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.3 -53.0 -53.7 -54.0 -54.8 -54.6 -55.0 -54.8 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 10 9 10 9 9 8 8 9 9 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 54 51 52 48 44 43 44 43 41 38 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 18 16 16 16 14 13 12 9 7 5 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 32 22 35 30 9 20 24 23 7 9 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -10 24 40 87 75 33 19 17 20 17 21 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1317 1217 1123 1125 1123 1006 994 1022 1021 1074 1061 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.8 15.1 15.0 15.1 15.9 16.2 16.3 16.4 16.5 17.5 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 118.5 117.8 116.8 116.7 116.8 116.1 116.3 116.8 116.9 117.7 118.9 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 5 0 3 5 3 2 1 5 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):180/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -17. -24. -31. -37. -42. -44. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -17. -19. -18. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -5. -11. -18. -29. -40. -48. -56. -59. -61.