* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN EP172012 11/03/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 36 37 37 32 27 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 36 36 37 37 32 27 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 35 34 34 33 31 28 26 25 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G01R 31 28 25 25 25 19 21 19 14 14 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 40 41 44 43 43 40 44 42 43 39 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 5 0 -9 -3 11 7 4 0 2 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 84 82 77 73 58 48 39 60 66 57 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.9 27.1 27.2 27.2 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 130 130 129 128 128 128 131 133 136 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.3 -54.4 -54.4 -54.2 -55.0 -54.7 -55.2 -54.8 -54.7 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 10 11 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 44 43 41 43 44 43 45 44 42 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 10 10 10 8 7 6 3 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -10 -19 -26 -15 -24 -19 -26 -34 -30 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 50 45 37 64 56 23 -20 13 18 12 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1523 1511 1470 1446 1423 1431 1422 1484 1552 1601 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.6 13.0 13.5 13.7 13.8 13.7 14.0 13.7 13.5 13.1 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 119.5 119.8 119.8 119.7 119.5 119.5 119.7 120.2 121.0 121.2 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 2 1 1 2 3 3 11 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):237/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 738 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -7. -14. -20. -27. -32. -35. -37. -38. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 16. 16. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -13. -14. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 2. -3. -8. -15. -21. -22. -24. -26. -27.