* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN EP902012 11/03/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 36 36 35 28 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 33 36 36 35 28 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 27 26 24 20 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G02R 27 20 21 23 23 27 24 18 16 15 12 11 0 SHEAR (KT) 17 21 20 20 25 33 36 42 39 43 40 41 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 9 7 3 8 21 20 18 23 15 4 8 N/A SHEAR DIR 70 65 62 55 51 44 26 39 46 48 56 66 N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.1 27.1 26.8 26.1 25.3 25.1 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 148 149 148 147 143 133 129 122 113 112 N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.4 -54.6 -54.6 -54.4 -54.8 -54.1 -54.9 -55.0 -55.4 -55.1 -55.0 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 11 10 11 10 11 10 10 9 N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 63 63 61 59 51 48 49 52 54 52 51 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 13 15 14 15 16 13 13 9 9 7 6 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 10 20 34 43 40 33 11 -4 -20 -40 -33 N/A 200 MB DIV 41 56 51 83 84 61 38 37 26 32 35 14 N/A LAND (KM) 806 776 729 644 570 554 593 576 548 567 584 502 N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.4 14.8 15.4 16.2 17.1 17.6 18.1 18.5 18.7 19.2 20.2 N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.4 110.1 109.9 109.4 109.2 109.7 110.7 112.1 112.4 113.1 114.0 113.9 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 6 8 7 6 6 5 3 5 3 5 N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G02R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):360/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 25. 27. 28. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -4. -11. -17. -23. -28. -31. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -11. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 1. -0. -5. -5. -8. -9. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 11. 10. 3. -2. -11. -20. -29. -33.