* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN EP172012 11/03/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 36 36 35 32 28 24 22 22 21 19 18 V (KT) LAND 35 36 36 36 35 32 28 24 22 22 21 19 18 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 35 34 33 33 33 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G03R 32 29 27 25 24 22 18 16 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 31 33 38 37 36 34 32 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 6 0 1 3 6 10 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 90 85 82 81 72 63 65 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 132 131 131 130 131 132 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -54.3 -54.7 -54.6 -54.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 9 8 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 51 49 47 47 49 47 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 10 9 8 7 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -41 -50 -58 -53 -32 -25 -30 -39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 36 25 7 15 8 -6 -5 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1533 1589 1619 1657 1648 1703 1709 1715 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.2 12.4 12.0 12.2 12.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 119.4 120.2 120.6 120.9 121.0 121.3 121.6 122.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 4 2 1 3 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G03R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):237/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 758 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 17. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -3. -5. -11. -15. -20. -23. -25. -25. -26. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 14. 16. 18. 19. 20. 20. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -7. -11. -13. -13. -14. -16. -17.