* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN EP902012 11/03/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 34 38 41 43 44 44 45 44 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 34 38 41 43 44 44 45 44 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G04R 21 19 18 18 17 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 27 25 22 22 22 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 9 5 2 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 62 54 47 36 18 346 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 146 146 146 146 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.6 -54.8 -54.5 -54.3 -54.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 11 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 64 63 59 58 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 10 9 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 18 30 33 37 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 45 58 66 79 71 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 771 827 850 841 836 812 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.1 13.6 13.5 13.6 13.5 13.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.7 109.9 110.1 110.1 109.9 109.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G04R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):360/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 731 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 27. 31. 34. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -12. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 13. 16. 18. 19. 19. 20. 19.