* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN EP172012 11/03/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 36 36 35 34 34 32 31 31 30 28 26 V (KT) LAND 35 36 36 36 35 34 34 32 31 31 30 28 26 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 35 34 33 33 33 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G05R 29 28 26 25 23 20 20 20 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 25 30 34 32 33 29 28 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 16 13 9 7 5 4 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 68 69 70 65 58 62 43 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 132 133 132 132 131 132 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.4 -54.9 -54.9 -54.8 -55.3 -54.7 -55.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 48 47 45 48 46 44 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 9 8 8 7 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -44 -37 -35 -35 -26 -10 -23 -24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 21 23 25 46 57 7 4 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1526 1609 1684 1768 1806 1840 1816 1822 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.0 11.7 11.3 11.2 11.3 11.7 12.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 119.3 120.0 120.7 121.4 121.8 122.4 122.6 123.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 6 4 2 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):237/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 757 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 16. 18. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -12. -16. -19. -20. -20. -21. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 14. 16. 18. 19. 20. 20. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -9.