* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN EP902012 11/03/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 36 40 43 43 46 42 37 29 23 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 33 36 40 43 43 46 42 37 29 23 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 29 30 29 28 26 24 20 17 V (KT) G07R 21 17 19 16 18 14 16 14 23 20 18 14 17 SHEAR (KT) 19 18 18 20 20 15 24 19 23 35 34 38 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 5 5 10 18 11 14 14 11 10 3 0 SHEAR DIR 69 52 44 51 56 21 340 358 33 36 42 48 54 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.1 27.8 26.9 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 148 147 148 148 147 149 150 145 140 132 131 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.3 -54.4 -54.2 -53.6 -54.1 -53.5 -53.9 -53.5 -54.2 -54.3 -54.8 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 11 11 11 12 11 10 11 8 9 700-500 MB RH 66 66 65 63 62 63 64 63 64 62 58 58 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 10 10 10 10 10 7 9 7 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR -40 -32 -5 17 22 19 19 -5 -5 -17 -19 -27 -23 200 MB DIV 8 60 55 82 81 99 72 53 66 13 43 10 21 LAND (KM) 851 893 882 916 895 908 854 745 475 537 467 377 227 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.0 12.9 12.6 12.9 13.4 13.8 14.8 17.8 18.1 18.8 20.0 21.4 LONG(DEG W) 110.0 110.1 109.8 109.9 110.0 110.8 110.5 110.1 109.3 110.6 111.0 111.9 111.5 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 2 1 2 4 3 8 12 9 4 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):360/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 28. 32. 35. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -12. -15. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -0. 1. -0. -0. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 11. 15. 18. 18. 21. 17. 12. 4. -2.