Global Marine Heatwave Forecast Discussion - July 2024

Observed and forecasted values include the effects of long-term warming since 1990. Values with the long-term warming trend removed are in brackets.

Current marine heatwave conditions:        

In June 2024, 36% [22%] of the global ocean experienced MHWs, which ranked 8th [16th] among all months since 1991.

While the fraction of the globe with marine heatwave (MHW) conditions remained relatively unchanged from May, those along the equator in the tropical Pacific decreased as El Niño weakened. MHWs are currently found in the western tropical Pacific, across much of the North Pacific to the east of Japan, the Sea of Japan and South China Sea, the tropical Atlantic, the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean Sea, parts of the Norwegian and Mediterranean Seas, much of the Indian Ocean, and portions of the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific sectors of the Southern Ocean.

Marine heatwave forecasts:

Forecasts predict that MHW coverage and overall intensity will continue to decline in the coming months, dropping to ~31% [15%] of the global oceans experiencing MHW conditions by October 2024. Below is a regionally refined focus: