AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA 418 AM PDT THU AUG 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL HEAT UP MORE THIS WEEKEND ESPECIALLY FOR INTERIOR AREAS. AFTER A FAIRLY CLOUDY AND COOL WEEK, SOMEWHAT WARMER AND SUNNIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THE COAST THIS WEEKEND AS WELL. && .DISCUSSION...AS OF 4AM SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COASTS AND RIVER VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO SWING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY, WHICH MAY HELP MIX OUT THE MARINE LAYER. CONFIDENCE ISN`T TERRIBLY HIGH IN THIS FOR TODAY SINCE THE AREA PROFILER CONFIRMS THE DEEP MARINE LAYER. THIS WEEKEND, AND IN PARTICULAR SATURDAY, MAY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR CLEARING SKIES AS OFFSHORE WINDS LOOK LIKELY. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING SKIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON, HIGHS COULD MAKE IT TO NEAR 70 DEGREES FOR THOSE AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FARTHER INLAND, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ON SATURDAY WILL BRING WARMING CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL MAKE IT TO NEAR 100 FOR SOME OF THE HOTTER INLAND VALLEYS OF TRINTY AND MENDOCINO COUNTIES, WHILE OTHER AREAS EXPERIENCE THE 80S AND 90S. UNFORTUNATELY, THESE AREAS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DEAL WITH QUITE A BIT OF SMOKE FROM THE CARR FIRE AND MENDOCINO COMPLEX, ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THOSE FIRES IN EASTERN MENDOCINO AND TRINITY COUNTIES. THE NATCHEZ FIRE AND FIRES IN OREGON ARE ALSO ADDING TO LAYERS OF HAZE ALOFT. THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY FOR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA THROUGH NEXT WEEK. FORTUNATELY TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY MAINLY BELOW 100 EVEN FOR THE HOTTER INLAND VALLEY SPOTS NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES ENOUGH UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHINESS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO KEEP THE HEAT DOME FROM REALLY BUILDING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. KR/AAD && .AVIATION...A SOLID DECK OF LOW CLOUDS HAS BEEN COVERING COASTAL AREAS AND ADJACENT RIVER VALLEYS THROUGH THE NIGHT. CEILINGS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY BETWEEN 500 TO 1000 FEET AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO HIGHER CEILINGS NEAR 1000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED IFR CONDITIONS MAY ROLL BACK INTO THE COASTAL TERMINALS THIS EVENING, HOWEVER AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSITION ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD START TO DEEPEN RESULTING IN HIGHER CEILINGS AND REDUCED CHANCES FOR VSBY OBSCURATION. THE MARINE LAYER HAS NOT BEEN DEEP ENOUGH TO PUSH STRATUS OVER THE COASTAL RANGE INTO UKI AGAIN. THE PRIMARY FORECAST PROBLEM FOR KUKI TODAY WILL BE PERIODIC SMOKE FROM NEARBY WILD FIRES. MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SMOKE WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE AT UKI AGAIN TODAY. THE TIMING AND DURATION OF THE SMOKE ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD DEEPEN TONIGHT. LOW CEILINGS MAY CREEP INTO UKI FROM THE NW BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS A WEAK TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OVER THE AREA. && .MARINE...NORTHERLIES WILL INCREASE A TAD TODAY, HOWEVER WINDS WILL STILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT AND WELL BELOW CRITERIA FOR AN ADVISORY TODAY. SEAS HAVE BEEN UNDER 5 FEET WITH A MIX BAG OF DOMINANT PERIODS RANGING FROM 8 TO 15 SECONDS. SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 5 FT OR LESS THROUGH TODAY WITH A COMBINATION OF SHORT PERIOD N TO NW WIND WAVES, LONG PERIOD NW SWELL AND SMALLER LONG PERIOD SW SWELL. SEAS WILL DETERIORATE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS WIND WAVES GROW OFFSHORE IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING NORTH WINDS. AN ADVISORY FOR SMALL CRAFT HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR THE OUTER WATERS. NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY AND STEEP SEAS WILL EVENTUALLY START TO IMPACT THE INNER WATERS. AN ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED. STEEP SEAS FROM 11 TO 13 FEET ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN NEAR THOSE LEVELS ON SATURDAY. A WARNING FOR SEAS WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED FOR THE OUTER WATERS. THE COVERAGE OF WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 KT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A GALE WARNING AT THIS TIME. NEAR STEADY STATE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A DIMINISHING TREND IN WINDS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER...A THERMAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST TODAY. THIS WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN OFFSHORE FLOW REGIME, WITH NORTHEASTERLY RIDGETOP WINDS POTENTIALLY GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH ACROSS INTERIOR DEL NORTE COUNTY TONIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY ONLY MODEST RECOVERIES IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY. THIS MAY BE A CONCERN FOR THE NATCHEZ FIRE AND OTHER FIRES IN SOUTHERN OREGON. AT THE VERY LEAST, SMOKE FROM THESE FIRES WILL LIKELY DRIFT OVER MUCH OF DEL NORTE, AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY HEADING INTO SATURDAY. ADDITIONALLY, HOT TEMPERATURES AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS FORECAST THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE INLAND VALLEYS, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 100. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM FRIDAY TO 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ470-475. &&