AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
743 AM PDT FRI NOV 2 2018

.SYNOPSIS...WARM AND DRY INTERIOR CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY PERSIST
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE, TYPICAL COASTAL CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED, WITH OVERNIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS AT LEAST PARTIALLY
CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON, AND COOL TEMPERATURES. BRIEF PERIODS
OF LIGHT COASTAL RAIN OR DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

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.UPDATE...THE RAIN HAS SLOWED FOR CRESCENT CITY AND COASTAL DEL
NORTE COUNTY THIS MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. ALSO THE CEILINGS HAVE LIFTED ALONG THE HUMBOLDT COAST
AS WELL AND DRIZZLE IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. MKK

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.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 AM PDT FRI NOV 2 2018/

DISCUSSION...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED
IN THE COMING WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FAIRLY
BENIGN CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA, WITH DRY CONDITIONS
AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
CLOUDIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS AT THE COAST. A WEAK FRONT
APPROACHING THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR A
FEW SHOWERS TO DEL NORTE COUNTY THIS MORNING, WITH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA STAYING DRY SAVE FOR SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE ALONG THE
HUMBOLDT COAST. STRATUS AND FOG WILL LARGELY REMAIN ENTRENCHED
ALONG THE REDWOOD COAST IN THE COMING DAYS, POTENTIALLY SCATTERING
OUT IN THE AFTERNOON BUT QUICKLY RE-EMERGING DURING THE EVENING.
THIS WILL KEEP COASTAL TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMAL
VALUES IN THE LOW 60S FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. MEANWHILE,
INTERIOR LOCATIONS WILL SEE MORE SUNSHINE WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND EVEN INTO THE LOW 80S
THROUGH THE RUSSIAN RIVER VALLEY OF SOUTHERN MENDOCINO COUNTY.
ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY
FLATTEN OUT THE EAST PACIFIC RIDGE ON SUNDAY, BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR RAIN MAINLY TO AREAS NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. SOME
AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE CAN THEN BE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK,
MAINTAINING THE MOSTLY DRY PATTERN WELL INTO THE EXTENDED PORTION
OF THE FORECAST. /CB

AVIATION...STRATUS IS EXTENSIVE ACROSS MOST OF HUMBOLDT COUNTY,
WITH A DEEP MARINE LAYER AND ONSHORE FLOW ALLOWING CLOUDS AND FOG TO
CREEP WELL UP THE EEL AND TRINITY RIVER VALLEYS. CEILINGS AT THE
COAST INCLUDING CEC AND ACV ARE MAINLY IN THE 1200-2500 FT RANGE
WITH AREAS OF LOWER CEILINGS AND FOG FARTHER INLAND. MEANWHILE,
NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ARE KEEPING AREAS SOUTH OF
CAPE MENDOCINO MAINLY CLEAR. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO LARGELY
PERSIST THIS MORNING, THOUGH LIFTING OR EVEN SCATTERING OF CEILINGS
IS POSSIBLE AT CEC AND ACV THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CLIPS
DEL NORTE COUNTY WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. SOME AREAS MAY STRUGGLE
TO CLEAR OUT AT ALL, THOUGH. EXPECT THE STRATUS WILL FILL BACK IN
TONIGHT, WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING TO IFR. /AAD

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO THE SOUTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AS A COLD FRONT CLIPS DEL NORTE
COUNTY, SOME WEAKENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EASE THE
NORTHERLY WINDS A BIT THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT DID
NOT THINK THIS WAS ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY DROPPING THE ADVISORY FOR THE
OUTER WATERS. GUSTS LOCALLY OVER 30 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE `FAN` SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO, WITH
FRESH SEAS OF 7 FT AROUND 7 SECONDS. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING FRONT TONIGHT AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS, BUT NOT QUITE ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY.

SEAS WILL BE A MIX OF THE SHORT-PERIOD STEEPER SEAS GENERATED MAINLY
BY THESE LOCAL NORTHERLY WINDS, AND MID-PERIOD WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY SWELLS 5 TO 7 FT. THIS PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. /AAD

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.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ475.

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