AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
258 PM PDT FRI NOV 2 2018

.SYNOPSIS...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH THE COAST AND INTERIOR VALLEYS
MAY SEE SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY A WEAK SYSTEM
MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE COUNTY. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK FRONT BROUGHT A VARIETY OF CLOUDS AND A FEW
SPRINKLES TO THE AREA TODAY. CLEARING SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
SHOULD HELP CLEAR THE DEL NORTE COAST, BUT CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO THE HUMBOLDT AND MENOCINO COASTS AND VALLEYS. SATURDAY
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED, HOWEVER ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO START APPROACHING THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING WHICH SHOULD BRING
A QUICK RETURN TO THE COASTAL CLOUDS.

THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK FAIRLY WEAK. PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO NORTHERN HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE
COUNTIES. OTHER AREAS MAY SEE SOME INCREASED CLOUDS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS GENERALLY ARE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE MODELS.

MONDAY CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
INTO THE AREA. TUESDAY AND THROUGH THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
CLOUDS STILL AROUND TUESDAY MORNING IN THE VALLEYS AND ALONG THE
COAST. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
MOST AREAS CLEAR EVEN AT THE COAST. AFTERNOONS WILL BE WARM AND
NIGHTS WILL BE CHILLY. FROST OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
IN MOST OF THE VALLEYS AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE COAST AS WELL. LATE
IN THE WEEK OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO START TO WEAKEN AND
THERE MAY BE MORE CLOUDS AROUND AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. MKK

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS HAS REMAINED PREVALENT ACROSS INTERIOR
VALLEYS OF DEL NORTE AND HUMBOLDT COUNTIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
COASTAL LOCATIONS HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED HOWEVER MVFR CEILINGS ARE
STILL OCCASIONALLY BEING REPORTED AT CEC. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO
VERY GRADUALLY CONTINUE TO ERODE ACROSS INTERIOR VALLEYS THIS
AFTERNOON HOWEVER A FEW LOCATIONS MAY NEVER CLEAR. A FEW SPRINKLES
AND MVFR CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE AT CEC THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AS A COLD FRONT GLANCES DEL NORTE COUNTY. MENDOCINO AND TRINITY
COUNTIES WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY PASSING HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. THE BIG QUESTION IS FOR THIS EVENING AND THE POTENTIAL
RETURN OF COASTAL AND VALLEY STRATUS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A
BIT OF DRY AIR DESCENDING BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. THIS CAN
CURRENTLY BE OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ARE PREVAILING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT. THEREFORE COASTAL
LOCATIONS MAY REMAIN CLEAR THIS EVENING AS THE DRIER AIR DESCENDS
TO THE SURFACE AND DISRUPTS THE MARINE LAYER. IF THE MARINE LAYER
REMAINS INTACT EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO
REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL STRATUS
IS FAIRLY LOW. INTERIOR VALLEYS WILL SEE A RETURN OF FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS TONIGHT AS MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED WITHIN THE VALLEYS.
/WCI

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO THE SOUTH OF
CAPE MENDOCINO THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AS A COLD FRONT CLIPS DEL
NORTE COUNTY, SOME WEAKENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EASE
THE NORTHERLY WINDS A BIT THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON,
BUT DID NOT THINK THIS WAS ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY DROPPING THE ADVISORY
FOR THE OUTER WATERS. GUSTS LOCALLY OVER 30 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE `FAN` SOUTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO, WITH FRESH SEAS OF 7 FT AROUND 7 SECONDS. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING FRONT TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS, BUT NOT QUITE ENOUGH TO
JUSTIFY A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

SEAS WILL BE A MIX OF THE SHORT-PERIOD STEEPER SEAS GENERATED MAINLY
BY THESE LOCAL NORTHERLY WINDS, AND MID-PERIOD WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY SWELLS 5 TO 7 FT. THIS PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. /AAD

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...POOR RH RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED ON THE EASTERN
RIDGES OF MENDOCINO COUNTY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A RED FLAG
WARNING, BUT WILL CONTINUE THE HEADLINE IN THE EASTERN MENDOCINO
ZONES. LOW RH WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY. SUNDAY A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM
WILL DIMINISH WINDS AND INCREASE RH. NEXT WEEK HIGH PRESSURE
AND OFFSHORE FLOW RETURNS BRINGING LOW RH TO MUCH OF THE AREA. MKK

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&