AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
500 AM PDT SAT NOV 3 2018

.SYNOPSIS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ALONG THE COAST AND IN INTERIOR VALLEYS THIS MORNING. A WEAK
SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE
COUNTIES ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST THINKING IS LARGELY UNCHANGED THIS MORNING
AS PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
YIELDS MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH
OF THE COMING WEEK. INCREASING NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW COASTAL
STRATUS AND FOG TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING, YIELDING MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE 60S AT THE COAST TO THE 70S OR EVEN THE LOW 80S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. A WEAK FRONT STILL LOOKS TO CLIP THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN TO AREAS NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO AS MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER RETURNS TO THE AREA. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN AT OR BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH. AFTER SUNDAY, DRY
CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE IN STORE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS
THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE AMPLIFIES OFFSHORE. INCREASING OFFSHORE
FLOW DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK SHOULD AID IN AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING ALONG THE COAST, WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO HOVER
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
RAIN APPEARS TO BE SOMETIME NEXT WEEKENDS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN AND A ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION, HOWEVER
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT ON THE SPECIFIC DETAILS AT
THIS TIME. /CB

&&

.AVIATION...SIMILAR TO FRIDAY MORNING, MARINE STRATUS IS EXTENSIVE
ACROSS MUCH OF HUMBOLDT COUNTY, WITH ONSHORE FLOW ALLOWING CLOUDS
AND FOG TO PUSH WELL UP THE EEL AND TRINITY RIVER VALLEYS.
HOWEVER, IN CONTRAST, THE MARINE LAYER IS MUCH SHALLOWER, WITH
CLOUD TOPS PERHAPS AROUND 1000 TO 1500 FT, AND LIFR CONDITIONS
WITH AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE ALONG MUCH OF THE HUMBOLDT, DEL
NORTE, AND SOUTHERN MENDOCINO COAST. MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
SCATTERING AND CLEARING ALONG THE COAST AS EARLY AS THE LATE
MORNING HOURS, WITH NORTHERLY BREEZES PICKING UP ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS
AND INLAND VALLEYS MAY HOLD ONTO LOW CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT STRATUS TO EXPAND ONCE AGAIN TO CEC AND ACV AFTER SUNSET.
HOWEVER, AS A WEAK FRONT CLIPS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA, IT SHOULD MIX
AND LIFT THE MARINE LAYER TO ALLOW FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF VFR
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY, ALBEIT ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW
SPOTTY SHOWERS ALONG THE REDWOOD COAST. /AAD

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO THE SOUTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTS LOCALLY OVER 30 KT
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTER OF THE `FAN`, WITH FRESH SEAS PEAKING
ABOUT 7 FT AT 7 SECONDS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
DECAYING WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL OF 4 TO 5 FEET AT 11 SECONDS THIS
WEEKEND. ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO, NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL BE NOTICEABLY BREEZIER THIS MORNING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, BUT
NOT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. PROBABLY THE BEST
CONDITIONS OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY, AS THE TAIL-END
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WEAKENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ALLOWS
MODERATELY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TO EASE. THERE WILL HOWEVER BE A
FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR AND NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO TOMORROW.

A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS ON MONDAY. 6 TO 8 FEET AT 13 TO 15 SECONDS
WILL COMBINE WITH STEEPER LOCALLY GENERATED WAVES TO PRODUCE
COMBINED SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FEET ON TUESDAY; HIGHEST ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS BEYOND 10 NM WHERE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE HEADING INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK. /AAD

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 258 PM PDT FRI NOV 2/
POOR RH RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED ON THE EASTERN RIDGES OF MENDOCINO
COUNTY TONIGHT. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE STRONG ENOUGH
TO WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING, BUT WILL CONTINUE THE HEADLINE IN
THE EASTERN MENDOCINO ZONES. LOW RH WILL CONTINUE TODAY. SUNDAY A
WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL DIMINISH WINDS AND INCREASE RH. NEXT WEEK
HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW RETURNS BRINGING LOW RH TO MUCH
OF THE AREA. MKK/CB


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL
9 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ455-475.

&&