AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA 247 PM PDT SAT NOV 3 2018 .SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW, BRINGING WITH IT SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN FOR DEL NORTE AND HUMBOLDT COUNTIES. DRY AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOST OF THE GROUND FOG AND MARINE STRATUS HAVE DISSIPATED AS MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED PASSING OVER THE REGION. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA WITH ONLY PERIODS OF CLOUDS AS THE MID TO HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PASS OVER THE AREA. HI-RES GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE RETURN OF MARINE STRATUS BEING POSSIBLE TONIGHT ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA BEGINNING TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW AS A DIMINISHING SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES FOR DEL NORTE AND HUMBOLDT COUNTIES TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WITH RAINFALL TOTALS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK, WITH NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. WINDS WILL TURN MORE OFFSHORE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WHICH SHOULD AID IN KEEPING THE COAST, AT LEAST PARTIALLY STRATUS FREE. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ENTER THE REGION AROUND THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIMEFRAME, BUT THEY DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY. && .AVIATION...COASTAL STRATUS AND VALLEY FOG HAS DISSIPATED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WITH ONLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERHEAD. VFR CONDITIONS AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN COASTAL STRATUS AND VALLEY FOG WILL REDEVELOP. EXPECT IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO RETURN TO COASTAL LOCATIONS BY THIS EVENING. THE QUESTION IS HOW EARLY WILL COASTAL LOCATIONS CLEAR TOMORROW MORNING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT AROUND SUNRISE THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE LIFTED AND MIXED ENOUGH TO ALLOW VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO BEGIN TO INCREASE. A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE TOMORROW MORNING PRIMARILY ACROSS DEL NORTE COUNTY. /WCI && .MARINE...LATEST ASCAT PASS INDICATES SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE STILL OCCURRING SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO TODAY WITH WINDS OF 20-25 KTS AND LOCAL GUSTS TO 30 KTS. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEAKENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO DECREASE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THE SEA STATE WILL CONSIST OF A NORTHWESTERLY SWELL AS WELL AS SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES HOWEVER TOTAL SEA STATES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 7 FEET. THE WESTERLY SWELL WILL PEAK EARLY NEXT WEEK AT 6-8 FEET AT AROUND 14 SECONDS. IN ADDITION, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL ALLOW WIDESPREAD WINDS OF 20- 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS TO REDEVELOP. THIS WILL ALLOW SHORTER PERIOD WAVES TO ALSO GROW LEADING TO COMBINED SEAS EARLY NEXT WEEK OF 8-11 FEET. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK. /WCI && .FIRE WEATHER...POOR RH RECOVERIES ARE FORECAST ALONG THE RIDGES OF MENDOCINO COUNTY THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY STRONG OVER THE AREA, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO HEADLINE IN THE EASTERN MENDOCINO COUNTY ZONES GIVEN THE LOW RH. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL AID IN RH INCREASING AND ALSO TO LOWER WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE AREA, WHICH WILL USHER IN LOWER RH. MODEL GUIDANCES THEN DEVELOP OFFSHORE FLOW AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ455-475. &&