AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
435 AM PST FRI NOV 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND BREEZY
WINDS IS IMPACTING NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING
THE WEEKEND, WITH WET AND WINDY WEATHER REDEVELOPING BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...THE THIRD AND FINAL ROUND OF STORM SYSTEMS IS
BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE
THE HIGHEST AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH IT AND THEREFORE WILL PRODUCE
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE
COUNTIES. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES OF
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WAVE WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS FOR WESTERN
FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS HEAVIER RAIN MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED
URBAN AND SMALL CREEK FLOODING AFTER THE HEAVIEST RAIN RATES ARE
OBSERVED. THIS WAVE WILL ALSO HAVE BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH IT
HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE WEAKER THAN WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY.
WIDESPREAD WIND SPEEDS ACROSS HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE COUNTIES WILL
SEE WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH FOR ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 1500 FEET.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND AS RIDGING REDEVELOPS ACROSS
THE WEST COAST. WITH THE LATEST PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
VALLEY FOG WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS
AND COULD BE PARTICULARLY THICK IF RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN BE
MAXIMIZED WITH A DECREASE IN CLOUDS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE THAT THE NEXT ROUND OF WET AND WINDY WEATHER WILL
RETURN TO THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED WET
WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEK./WCI


&&

.AVIATION...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLE
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO THE TERMINALS AGAIN TODAY. ANOTHER WAVE OF
RAIN TODAY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN REDUCED VSBYS IN HEAVY SHOWERS AND
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS. MOIST CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS, THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.


&&

.MARINE...SOUTH WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE THIS MORNING AND THE
SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. GFS AS WELL AS
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS WITH
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS MORNING NORTH OF CAPE MENDO. A SHORT-LIVED
GALE WARNING HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD
START TO SETTLE DOWN TONIGHT AFTER THE FRONT DEPARTS. SEAS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN HAZARDOUS TONIGHT DUE TO A SHORT PERIOD WESTERLY
SWELL. THIS SWELL SHOULD FALL OFF OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS AND WIND FIELDS GO MOSTLY LIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST EARLY
TO MID NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL BUILD UP DUE TO A COMBINATION OF SHORT
PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND WAVES AND LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL. A
WESTERLY SWELL MAY BRING A THREAT FOR HIGH SURF TUE INTO WED.

&&

.COASTAL FLOODING...CURRENT TIDAL ANOMALIES IN THE VICINITY OF
HUMBOLDT BAY ARE AROUND 0.9 FEET. APPLYING THAT ANOMALY TO THE
ASTRONOMICAL TIDE TODAY OF 7.9 FEET, COMBINED WITH STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SURROUNDING RUN-OFF DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL,
MINOR FLOODING AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY WILL BE POSSIBLE, INCLUDING
KING SALMON AND JACKSON RANCH ROAD.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ107-110-
     113.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR CAZ101-102-104>106.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM PST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR CAZ103.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ450-455.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&