AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
610 AM PDT SUN MAR 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...17/221 AM.

AN UPPER LOW EAST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEND BANDS OF
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AT TIMES, MAINLY IN LA COUNTY. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY WARMING INTO THE LOWER
80S ACROSS THE WARMER VALLEYS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH A COOLING TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...17/244 AM.

A STUBBORN AND VERY PESKY UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR BLYTHE CONTINUES
TO SEND BANDS OF MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AT TIMES, MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY.
THIS IS A VERY UNUSUAL UPPER AIR PATTERN WITH LOWER THAN USUAL
PREDICTABILITY. THE REX BLOCK REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE PAC NW AND THE UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST.
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS SHOW THE LOW
STARTING TO CREEP BACK INTO CALIFORNIA LATER MONDAY WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THE GRAND ENSEMBLE SOLUTION
WASN`T QUITE AS FAR WEST BUT STILL CLOSE ENOUGH IN PROXIMITY TO
MAINTAIN A 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA (MAINLY LA COUNTY AND THE VENTURA
COUNTY MOUNTAINS) THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. LATEST HI RES MODELS
FAVOR THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY FOR THE BEST CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND LOWER CHANCES MONDAY. IF THE LOW DOES DRIFT FARTHER
WEST INTO CALIFORNIA LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WOULD CERTAINLY INCREASE. FOR
NOW WILL KEEP CHANCES ON THE LOWER SIDE AND SEE HOW THE UPPER
PATTERN EVOLVES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

EXPECTING A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING IN MOST AREAS TODAY DUE TO A
SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE ONSHORE FLOW. EVEN MORE WARMING EXPECTED
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW 80S ACROSS THE
WARMER VALLEYS, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS HAS LOWERED AS
OFFSHORE FLOW ISN`T AS STRONG AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE INCREASING
CUMULUS CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...17/259 AM.

THE BLOCKING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BREAKING DOWN AROUND MID
WEEK BUT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER CALIFORNIA AT
LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
LATE NEXT WEEK WILL NUDGE THE HIGH TO THE EAST AND TAKE OVER THE
WEST COAST NEXT WEEKEND. ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS KEEP MOST OF THE
SYSTEM ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE PAC NW BUT BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME NEXT
WEEKEND WITH LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS.

&&

.AVIATION...17/1309Z.

AT 12Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER OR INVERSION.

N OF PT. CONCEPTION, AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WERE AFFECTING THE
CENTRAL COAST, SANTA YNEZ VALLEY AND THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SLO
COUNTY, CONDITIONS WERE MOSTLY LOW MVFR TO HIGH IFR, EXCEPT LIFR
TO VLIFR IN THE FOOTHILLS AND SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR BY MID TO LATE MORNING, THEN VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU
THE EVENING WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS. AREAS OF STRATUS ARE LIKELY IN
COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY IFR CONDS.

S OF PT. CONCEPTION, MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS HAVE CAUSED
ANY STRATUS TO BE ISOLATED IN NATURE. WHERE THERE WAS STRATUS,
CONDS WERE MOSTLY IFR TO VLIFR AND SHOULD CLEAR TO VFR BY MID
MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE
MTNS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES, AND ADJACENT VALLEYS AND FOOTHILLS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. AREAS OF STRATUS ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN
COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A, COUNTY TONIGHT, WITH MOSTLY MVFR CONDS.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF
MVFR CIGS THRU 18Z. THERE IS A 5-10% CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM FROM 20Z THRU 01Z, AND IF THAT OCCURS, THERE COULD BE
A NE TO E WIND OF 6-10 KT. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE THAT CONDS WILL
REMAIN VFR TONIGHT.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF
MVFR CIGS THRU 18Z. THERE IS A 5-10% CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM FROM 20Z THRU 01Z. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF
IFR CIGS AFTER 10Z TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...17/327 AM.

IN THE OUTER WATERS, THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL NW WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS
TODAY AND MON, MAINLY NW OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND. IN THE NORTHERN
ZONE (PZZ670), THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS TUE NIGHT
THRU THU. IN THE SOUTHERN TWO ZONES (PZZ673/676), THERE IS A 40%
CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS TUE AFTERNOON AND THU, WITH SCA LEVEL
WINDS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT.

ACROSS THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF PT. SAL, SCA CONDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED THRU THU.

ACROSS THE INNER WATERS SOUTH OF PT. CONCEPTION, THERE IS A 30%
CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SBA
CHANNEL DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS TODAY AND MON.
OTHERWISE, SCA CONDS ARE NOT EXPECTED THRU THU.

PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, AND AGAIN TONIGHT INTO
MON MORNING, MAINLY N AND W OF PT. CONCEPTION.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&