AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
229 PM PDT SUN MAR 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...17/221 AM.

AN UPPER LOW EAST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEND BANDS OF
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AT TIMES, MAINLY IN LA COUNTY. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY WARMING INTO THE LOWER
80S ACROSS THE WARMER VALLEYS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH A COOLING TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...17/155 PM.

OVERALL, 12Z MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS, LOW WILL MEANDER AROUND THE CA/AZ
BORDER THROUGH TUESDAY THEN WILL MOVE EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY AS A
RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. NEAR THE SURFACE, WEAK DIURNAL FLOW
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY WITH WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW
PREVAILING TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE
UPPER LOW AND THE THREAT OF CONVECTION. LOOKING AT LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION INFO, STILL LOOKS LIKE GOOD FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE
LA/VENTURA MOUNTAINS, COASTAL FOOTHILLS/VALLEYS AND THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY. ON MONDAY, ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS INDICATE
SOME INCREASING INSTABILITY (HIGHER CAPE, ETC.) AS UPPER LOW
WOBBLES A BIT TO THE WEST. SO, WILL KEEP MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SAME AREAS OF VENTURA/LA
COUNTIES, BUT WILL ALSO INCLUDE A BIT OF THE INTERIOR SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS. ON TUESDAY, FORECAST IS DRY FOR NOW, BUT
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME POPS INCLUDING BY FUTURE
SHIFTS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY OR MONDAY WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN, SMALL HAIL, DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.

OTHER THAN THE CONVECTIVE THREAT, ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW,
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE BENIGN. THE MARINE
LAYER STRATUS AND FOG WILL REMAIN RATHER LIMITED THROUGH TUESDAY,
MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS OF THE CENTRAL COAST. HOWEVER FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, EXPECT STRATUS AND FOG TO BE A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD WITH MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST
AND A DECENT CHANCE OF SOME STRATUS/FOG ACROSS THE LA COAST. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES, WEAK DIURNAL GRADIENTS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
WARMER TEMPERATURES MONDAY/TUESDAY WITH MOST AREAS WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS CLIMBING INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80. ON WEDNESDAY, THERE
WILL BE SOME SLIGHT COOLING WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS, BUT MAYBE SOME
SLIGHT WARMING ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS. WINDS DO NOT LOOK TO BE
MUCH OF A PROBLEM AS ANY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...17/155 PM.

OVERALL, 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT DECENT SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
ON THURSDAY, BUT WILL WEAKEN AND PUSH EASTWARD AS A TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE WEST COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

FORECAST-WISE, THURSDAY WILL BE NICEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED. THERE
WILL BE SOME NIGHT/MORNING STRATUS AND FOG, BUT OTHERWISE SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, COOLER AND MORE CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WEST COAST. LOOKING
AT MODEL SOLUTIONS, MOST OF THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA. HOWEVER, ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE SOME CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT
FORECAST POPS INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN FOR SECTIONS
OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...17/1934Z.

AT 1841Z AT KLAX, THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER OR INVERSION.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAFS, EXCEPT FOR SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH CIGS DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS IN THE MTNS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES, AND ADJACENT VALLEYS
AND FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ANY SHOWER OR STORM MAY
RESULT IN IFR-MVFR CIGS AND GUSTY WINDS. OVERNIGHT, THERE IS AT
LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF SEVERAL HOURS OF IFR- MVFR CIGS FOR ALL
COASTAL SITES, WITH A 60% CHANCE FOR KLAX, KLGB, AND KSMX.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 5-10% CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FROM 21Z THRU 02Z, AND IF THAT OCCURS,
THERE MAY BE A NE TO E WIND OF 6-10 KT AND BKN008-BKN015 CIGS.
THERE IS A 40% CHANCE THAT CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR TONIGHT.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 5-10% CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FROM 21Z THRU 02Z. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE OF
BKN008-BKN015 CIGS AFTER 08Z TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...17/228 PM.

FOR ALL OUTER WATERS AND THE INNER WATERS NORTH OF POINT MUGU
THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF A COUPLE HOURS OF LOCALIZED SCA (SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY) LEVEL NW-W WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
FOLLOWED BY A 20% MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR THE SAME AREA,
THERE IS A 40% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL WINDS, TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY.

FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN BELOW SCA LEVEL SEAS
THROUGH THURSDAY.

PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, MAINLY
N AND W OF PT. CONCEPTION.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&