AFDLOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA 1142 AM PDT TUE APR 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS...16/212 AM. DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD ALSO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST AND VALLEYS DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...16/1142 AM. ***UPDATE*** TEMPERATURES ARE UP 5-10 DEGREES FROM THIS TIME YESTERDAY UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH HEIGHTS. THE MORNING FOG NEAR PASO ROBLES HAS DISSIPATED. EXPECTING A RETURN OF OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS EVENING, AND MORE EXTENSIVE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. NO IMPACTFUL CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION ***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION*** A WEEK`S WORTH OF UNEVENTFUL WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR SRN CA. A WEEK RIDGE WILL NOSE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE TODAY AND HGTS WILL RISE ABOUT 580 DAM. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE NORTH AND THIS WILL GENERATE SOME GUSTY WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW THE N/S ORIENTED CANYONS. THERE IS NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY OF THE GUSTS TO REACH ADVISORY LEVELS. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP ALMOST ALL OF THE LOW CLOUDS AWAY WITH THE ONLY CONCENTRATED LOW CLOUDS IN THE PASO ROBLES AREA, OTHERWISE JUST PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. MAX TEMPS WILL BE TODAY`S MOST SIGNIFICANT TALKING POINT. MAX TEMPS WILL RISE 6 TO 12 LOCALLY 15 DEGREES TODAY THE RESULT OF A COMBINATION OF APRIL SUNSHINE, OFFSHORE FLOW, AND RISING HGTS. MOST MAX TEMPS WILL END UP 3 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE COASTS WILL RISE INTO THE 70S WHILE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF LOW TO MID 80S IN THE VLYS. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RELAX TONIGHT AND THE LOW CLOUD PATTERN WILL START TO REFORM. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REFORM ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AND THE SALINAS RIVER VLY. THE SKIES WILL BE SUNNY ON WEDNESDAY SAVE FOR THE LOW CLOUDS WHICH WILL NOT LAST PAST MID MORNING. THE OFFSHORE WILL BE WEAKER AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN EARLIER SEABREEZE WHICH WILL BRING 2 TO 4 DEGREES OF COOLING TO THE CSTS/VLYS. HGTS WILL RISE ANOTHER 2 OR 3 DAM AS THE RIDGE PEAKS AND THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER 3 TO 6 DEGREES OF WARMING ACROSS THE MTNS AND FAR INTERIOR. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THE RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED TO THE EAST BY A WEAK TROF. THE TROF WILL BRING A MASS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS - ENOUGH TO MAKE THE DAY A MOSTLY CLOUDY ONE. THE LIFT FROM THE LOW ALONG WITH A SHARP INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW TO THE EAST WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS TO THE COASTS AND MOST OF THE VLYS. THE AFTERNOON ONSHORE PUSH TO THE EAST IS FCST TO BE NEAR 7 MB AND ITS LIKELY THAT THE LOW CLOUDS WILL NOT CLEAR MANY COASTAL AREAS. LOOK FOR 4 TO 8 DEGREES OF COOLING ACROSS THE BOARD - THIS WILL BRING THE CSTS AND VLYS MAX TEMPS DOWN BELOW NORMALS. THE MTNS AND THE FAR INTERIOR, HOWEVER, WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE CSTS AND VLYS WILL END UP IN THE MID 60S TO THE MID 70S. .LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...16/322 AM. GFS AND EC ALONG WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WEAK TROFFING WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE COASTS AND MOST OF THE VLYS. THERE WILL BE WEAK ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CLEARING. THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE PAST THE AREA SO THERE WILL BE MUCH MORE SUNSHINE. THE LOWER HGTS WILL SERVE TO COOL THE AREA BUT THE SUNNIER SKIES AND WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW WILL COUNTERACT THIS COOLING. THE END RESULT IS THAT THERE WILL BE HODGE-PODGE OF WARMING AND COOLING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS ON FRI ARE FORECAST TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE COAST AND VLYS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ELSEWHERE. THERE SHOULD BE A WARMING TREND SAT AND SUN, WITH SUN BEING THE WARMEST DAY DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WITH THE MARINE LAYER EXPECTED TO DEEPEN BY MON, TEMPS WILL COOL BACK TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE COAST AND VLYS BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR INTERIOR AREAS. WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE, HOWEVER, MOST MAX TEMPS WILL COME IN WITHIN 2 DEGREES OF THURSDAY`S VALUES. WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD IN OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL RELAX EVEN BECOMING OFFSHORE FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. THE AMOUNT OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL SUBSIDE AND SUNDAY MAY WELL END UP CLOUD FREE. MAX TEMPS WILL RISE 2 TO 4 DEGREES EACH DAY. BY SUNDAY CST/VLY MAX TEMPS WILL END UP 2 TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WHILE THE MTNS AND FAR INTERIOR WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREE WARMER THAN NORMAL. ALMOST ALL OF THE VLYS WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE 80S. THE RIDGE WEAKENS ON MONDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO INCREASE. LOOK FOR AN INCREASE IN THE MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND A 2 TO 4 DEGREE COOLING TREND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. && .AVIATION...16/1829Z. AT 17Z, THERE WAS A WEAK MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX AT ABOUT 1500 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AT 2800 FT WITH A TEMP OF 16 DEG C. GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS FOR MOST AIRFIELDS WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER, FOR KPRB THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE LOW CLOUDS AND LIFR CONDS WILL DEVELOP THERE LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST UNTIL ABOUT 17Z WED. FOR KLAX AND KLGB, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND LINGERING INTO WED MORNING. THE TIMING OF ANY LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF +/- AN HOUR OR SO. KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 40%-50% CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS ABOUT 12Z-16Z WED. OTHERWISE VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL. ANY EAST WIND COMPONENT SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 6 KNOTS. KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS THRU THE PD. && .MARINE...16/856 AM. IN THE OUTER WATERS, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVEL WINDS AND STEEP SEAS WILL CONTINUE THRU LATE TONIGHT, THEN SCA CONDS ARE NOT EXPECTED WED-THU NIGHT. SCA LEVEL NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRI-SAT. IN THE INNER WATERS N OF PT. SAL, SCA LEVEL NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SCA CONDS ARE NOT EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT-THU NIGHT. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL NW WINDS FRI, THEN SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY SAT. IN THE INNER WATERS S OF PT. CONCEPTION, THERE IS A 40% CHANCE OF SCA LEVEL W-NW WINDS IN THE WESTERN SBA CHANNEL THIS EVENING, AND AGAIN SAT, WITH A 20% CHANCE IN NW PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS. OTHERWISE, SCA CONDS ARE NOT EXPECTED THRU SAT. && .BEACHES...16/528 AM. A LONG-PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL PUSH INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT, AND MAY BRING LOW END HIGH SURF CONDS TO S FACING BEACHES. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF HIGH SURF OF 4-7 FT ON S FACING BEACHES OF L.A. COUNTY WED/WED NIGHT. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX). SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES 670-673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX). &&