AFDSEW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA 853 AM PST WED FEB 7 2024 .SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST TODAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST OF THE CASCADES TONIGHT. LITTLE IMPACT TO WESTERN WASHINGTON IS EXPECTED. NEXT SYSTEM MOVING DOWN THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ARRIVING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS HOWEVER ALSO PLENTY OF BREAKS IN THOSE CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. AS MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW, CURRENTLY OFF THE OR COAST, WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND EASTWARD, TAKING ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH IT, AND AS SUCH NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACTIVITY OVER W WA TODAY. CURRENT RADAR SUPPORTS THAT WITH A FEW WEAK SHOWERS OFF THE COASTAL WATERS AND A STRAY CELL OVER THE PORT ANGELES AREA BUT OTHERWISE, NO ACTIVITY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PATTERN OR MODEL SOLUTIONS, KEEPING WEATHER OVER W WA ACTIVE IN THE SHORT TERM...BUT ONLY JUST SO. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE REGION THURSDAY, HOWEVER NEITHER DETERMINISTIC NOR ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE TERRIBLY IMPRESSED WITH THE FEATURE...RESULTING IN SOME POPS OVER THE CWA, BUT GENERALLY HANGING IN THE 20-30 PCT RANGE. SHOULD RAIN ACTUALLY MATERIALIZE, ANY AMOUNTS WOULD LIKELY ONLY ADD UP TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY CONDITIONS STILL ON TAP FOR FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH ENOUGH MOISTURE LOOKS TO LINGER TO KEEP CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SUN BREAKS, BUT WHEN AND WHERE THEY MATERIALIZE REMAINS OPEN TO CONJECTURE. FORECAST DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW BOTH HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES DURING THE SHORT TERM TO REMAIN FAIRLY STATIC WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. INHERITED FORECAST CAPTURES THESE TRENDS WELL AND SEE NO NEED FOR A MORNING UPDATE. 18 .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A RACE BETWEEN A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND A WARM FRONT TRYING TO MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE. OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS SHOW THE RIDGE FOR THE MOST PART WINNING THE BATTLE FOR A DRY DAY. ENSEMBLES, WHILE TRENDING TOWARD A DRY SOLUTION, STILL HAVE ABOUT QUARTER OF THE SOLUTIONS WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW BUT IF THE TRENDS CONTINUE SATURDAY COULD BE DRY FOR MOST OF THE DAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENING AND SHIFTING EAST SATURDAY NIGHT OPENING THE DOOR FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY KEEPING AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. SLIGHT WARMING TREND FOR THE HIGHS WITH MID AND UPPER 40S FRIDAY GETTING UP TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S BY TUESDAY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. QUICK NOTE ON THE USE OF THE WORD FRUSTRATING IN THE MONDAY MORNING DISCUSSION. THE FORECAST WAS FRUSTRATING BECAUSE IT WAS HARD TO PROVIDE CLARITY ON WHEN IT WOULD SEE PRECIPITATION AND WHEN WE WOULD GET DRY SPELLS. A BROADBRUSH MOSTLY CLOUDY CHANCE OF RAIN FORECAST FOR 7 DAYS IS NOT VERY INFORMATIVE BUT SOMETIMES THAT JUST THE WAY IT IS HERE IN WESTERN WASHINGTON. FELTON && .AVIATION...GENERALLY LIGHT FLOW ALOFT WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING. RAIN SHOWERS HAVE LARGELY DRIFTED OFFSHORE, WITH SOME LINGERING AT CLM. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE REGION. MOSTLY VFR TO OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH A BROKEN MID TO LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK. PATCHY DENSE FOG REMAINS EARLY THIS MORNING, MOST NOTABLY AT OLM AND PWT. EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY TO IMPROVE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS FROM 17-19Z WEDNESDAY AS THE SUN RISES AND BURNS AWAY THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS BROKEN TO SCATTERED. CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO FILL BACK IN AFTER AROUND 06Z THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO LOW VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS. WINDS MOSTLY CALM THIS MORNING, BECOMING NORTHERLY, NORTHWESTERLY NEAR THE COAST, AROUND 5 KT. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN TONIGHT. KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS WITH A SCT300 DECK OCCASIONALLY FILLING IN THIS MORNING. GENERALLY DRY DAY TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH THE CLOUD DECK BECOMING BROKEN TO SCATTERED. CEILINGS LOOK TO FILL IN OVERNIGHT AND MAY DROP TO LOW VFR/MVFR AFTER AROUND 06Z THURSDAY. CALM WIND EXPECTED TO BECOME NORTHERLY/NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 6 KTS INTO THE AFTERNOON, THE PERIOD OF 22- 02Z MAY BRING WINDS SLIGHTLY ABOVE 6 KTS BEFORE WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM INTO EARLY THURSDAY. LH && .MARINE...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FOR THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH ALONG THE COAST. WINDS OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS WILL REACH 15-20 KTS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KTS. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS AGAIN ON FRIDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY, THOUGH WINDS WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW 15 KTS WITH THE PASSING OF THESE SYSTEMS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS NEAR 9 TO 12 FT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 7 FEET AND BELOW THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE BUILDING AGAIN TO NEAR 9 TO 11 FT THROUGH SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WESTERLY SWELL. LINDEMAN && .HYDROLOGY...NO RIVER FLOODING EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...NONE. PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM. &&