AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
222 PM PDT SAT MAR 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL CREATE A PERIOD OF
ABOVE AVERAGE TO NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL REMAIN THE
NORM THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK, BEFORE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
RETURNS THE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK, ALONG WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AT 300 AND 500 MB HAS PEAKED IN BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST,
AND WELL INTO CANADA. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN B.C. CANADA, WITH A LOW OVER ARIZONA AND A TROUGH IN THE
GREAT LAKES PREVENTING THE RIDGE FROM MOVING EASTWARD.
CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MULTIPLE STATIONS ALREADY
REPORTING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. MAJORITY OF PLACES
HOWEVER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON REMAIN IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S IN
PUGET SOUND/SOUTHWEST INTERIOR. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STILL
INCREASE PAST SOLAR NOON A FEW DEGREES. EXPECTATION IS FOR LOWLAND
AREAS TO SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT
IN THE MID 40S. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
A FEW MORE CLOUDS TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, PARTICULARLY
ALONG THE COAST.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO FLATTEN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM ALASKA. A COUPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL SWING
AROUND THE PRIMARY TROUGH IN THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL RETURN MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH, WITH HIGHS
RETURNING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S, AND LOWS DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THE END OF THE WEEK. NO SIGNIFICANT QPF IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
SNOW LEVELS WILL HOVER AROUND 2,500 TO 3,000 FT, WHICH WILL LEAVE
A WINDOW OPEN POSSIBLE FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION AND SNOW AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

HPR

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE WITH LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME ONSHORE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHALLOW FOG POSSIBLE IN A FEW SHELTERED RIVER
VALLEY LOCATIONS, OTHERWISE VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH A PERIOD
OF LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PUGET SOUND AREA
THIS EVENING.

KSEA...JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS 3 TO
5 KNOTS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY 4 TO 8 KNOTS AROUND 03Z.

&&

.MARINE...LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT WITH THE FLOW
BECOMING ONSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

WINDS WILL WILL EASE OVERNIGHT THEN BECOME ONSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL STRAIT LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, MOST LIKELY 10 TO 20 KNOTS, WITH
AROUND A 20% CHANCE OF WINDS GREATER THAN 21 KNOTS. COMBINED SEAS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL RANGE 4 TO 6 FEET THROUGH MONDAY
BUILDING SOMEWHAT TO 5 TO 7 FEET TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NO RIVER FLOODING EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&